Forty per cent growth in emerging regions, predicts Gartner.
Industry interest in ultra low-cost mobile PCs for educational purposes is growing, particularly in emerging markets, according to Gartner.
The analyst firm predicts that more than six million ultra low-cost mobile PC devices for the education segment could be shipped by the end of 2012, a 40 per cent rise, with most demand coming from emerging regions.
Shipments of these devices will reach nearly one million units in 2008 and five million by the end of 2011.
Growth is anticipated to be slow at first, with volumes expected to remain limited in 2007 as the first devices will be seed units used to test usage models and determine usefulness.
"PC vendors that target governments and education organisations in emerging markets should have a plan for a limited launch of branded ultra low-cost PC models in Asia/Pacific and Latin America by the middle of 2008, or they will miss the early opportunities," said Annette Jump, research director at Gartner.
Gartner currently sees two product concepts driving this change: the well publicised One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative and Intel's Classmate PC platform.
The OLPC project has received criticism over spiralling costs, but recently started a two-for-one programme as a way of offering the devices to consumers and helping distribute them to developing countries.
While the OLPC initiative focuses on the provision of devices to children who do not have access to PCs, Intel's Classmate encompasses the classroom environment, including networking infrastructure, teacher training and curriculum materials, which Gartner sees as a better model.
"A classroom-focused approach by the Classmate will ultimately prove more effective in driving ultra low-cost PC shipments," said Luis Anavitarte, research vice president at Gartner.
"Hardware alone is not enough, and users will need software and education applications in local languages."
Although the analysts see publicly funded schools as the primary target, they highlight that privately funded schools also present opportunities for ultra low-cost PC adoption and should not be disregarded.
"While reducing the digital divide is critical for emerging economies in their development process, it is also a powerful driver for the future of the PC industry as low-cost PC users today may become mainstream PC users tomorrow," added Anavitarte.
Jump concluded that the success or failure of ultra low-cost PCs will depend on several factors, including government support and funding, support from big name IT manufacturers, attractive pricing and software and training in a local language.