You'd think it would be in Toyota's best interests to keep the great plug-in dream alive, but according to one of their top executives, Bill Reinert - it's not going to happen anytime soon, blaming high lithium battery costs for the demise of electric cars as the premium people movers of choice
In an speech given at a future-of-the-car panel, sponsored by Fortune Magazine in Orange County, California, Reinert unplugged any dreams of Toyota getting out of the hybrid business:
"As for plug-in electrics, they're just not plausible right now. Lithium-ion batteries are too expensive by at least an order of magnitude. They're not energy-dense enough. And we generate a lot of our electricity from coal."
Unfortunately, that's bound to be a mood killer for some Toyota owners. Ever since Toyota rose to the forefront with their cutting edge Prius-hybrid technology, it's been an overdue expectation that a Toyota backed, Tesla styled fully electric plug-in would be an obvious market winner for the world's biggest automaker and a great boom to electric car development.
The Prius plug-in alternative
It's not like plug-in technology isn't possible. Some Prius owners have resorted to do-it-yourself (and garage assisted) plug-in conversions to achieve this goal of electric convenience. Sites like Hymotion and Cal Cars specialise in the conversion.
It's also a fact not lost on other Japanese, Korean and American electric car manufacturers, who seem keen to play catch up and overtake Toyota in the electric/hybrid plug-in car stakes.
The lithium battery crisis and the fuel cell debate:
Kept in the doldrums by expensive lithium battery technology, electric car manufacturers continue to insist that it's the batteries doing the most harm. But is that really the case? Just in case it's not, some manufacturers are already hedging their bets either way. Nissan for example, are betting on a dual-pronged approach: building a factory that can tool both hybrid and all-electric (plug-in) style vehicles.
There are notable green arguments against using lithium too. Some pundits argue that there simply isn't enough lithium to go round, if most people converted to 'plug-in' types in the new few years. And recycling the material is much more expensive than the virgin raw material, found in the ground.
Alternatives are being found, but it's a slow journey. Nano-titanate based lithium batteries are already being explored by some enterprising silicon valley start ups as the big next step in creating an affordable, rapid charging battery (think 10 minutes) - thanks to the nano materials and the distance the ions have to travel. Altair Nano is one such company leading this space currently. Ultra capacitors have exciting prospects, but the technology is still at the research phase.
Lithium might be the perfect fit for our portable computers, but it seems our cars need something a little more....unique. Like hydrogen. In Toyota's case, they appear to more invested in seeing Fuel Cell technologies emerge as the great auto energy; but it's also a pie-in-the-sky future technology that has everybody from Top Gear presenters to Presidents gloating over.
In April, 2006, former President George W. Bush visited the California Fuel Cell Partnership and came back glowing with ideas of a perfect transport future based on the 'miracle' fuel. Bush smiled for cameras and gave the kind of speech that would make most lobbyists cringe, supporting fuel cell work and evading modern economic reality.
Apart from fuel cell vechiles only being avaliable to lease in small areas of the world, there is hardly any fueling capacity avaliable: very few refueling stations exist outside of California and Japan. Compare that to the number of electric sockets avaliable and you get the picture about why some tire of the fuel cell fascination.
Preferring to concentrate on electric vechiles instead, President Obama quietly killed off the Bush idea earlier this year, as critics seized upon the fuel cell notion, prompting further debate over fuel cells vs. electric plug-ins.
Still, that hasn't stopped the motorheads over at the BBC produced Top Gear television show from proclaiming fuel cells and the Honda FCX Clarity in particular, as the most important car in the next 100 years. That's a big call for a unproven technology.
Bold statements aside, fuel cell development is still a long, long way from being mass market ready. The technology requires an enormous amount of critical infrastructure to 'refill' empty cars (hydrogen refuelling stations) and needs much work befofe it's refined in the same good-to-go shape that electric plug-ins are pressing towards.
At this point, we're still likely years away from hygrogen powered cars hittng the streets. Contrastingly, plug-in's are raring to go, so it's difficult to see why Toyota and other car makers are taking their time to market.
Popular types of electric/green cars in development/for sale:
Hybrid: Toyota Prius, Chevy Volt, Nissan, Ford Escape, Honda
Hybrid conversion kits: Hymotion
Full electric: Tesla, Mitusbishi, Nissan, ZAP-X, Subaru
Fuel cell: Ford edge, GM sequel, Honda FCX Clarity