Games consoles 'dead' within a decade

by Guy Dixon on Apr 4, 2008

10 Comments

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Former Xbox boss says consoles heading for the scrap heap. Lets hope he's thrown on a flame proof suit.

Games consoles will soon become a thing of the past as the games industry embraces high-speed internet access and virtualised computing, according to a former vice president of Xbox Europe.

Sandy Duncan, who was with Microsoft for 15 years before co-founding YoYo Games, has given games consoles a lifespan of no more than a decade.

"The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices, i.e. consoles and handhelds, will die [out] in the next five to 10 years," he told That VideoGame Blog.

"In fact, in five to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV. Most of this stuff will be virtualised as web services by your content provider."

Duncan maintained that there is little technological difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360.

He added that companies will be wary of creating consoles for a market where "the business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high".

Duncan pointed to the emergence of cloud computing and the Xbox Live service, which already has around eight million members worldwide, as evidence that the console's days are numbered.

Meanwhile, sales forecasts of games consoles remain strong. Games publisher Electronic Arts recently estimated that sales of Wii consoles will reach 14 million units in Europe and North America this year.

Projected sales figures for Sony's PS3 also look healthy. Market watcher iSuppli predicts global sales of 10 million over 2003.

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nix Apr 5, 2008 9:02 AM	So what he's trying to say is that, basically, consoles will do things other than just play games? The thing about games consoles is that they're cutting edge: although there's 'little' technological difference between a 360 and soe HDD-based records, part of that little are things like the 360's massive GPU. Sure, a GPU like that is going to be cheap enough to throw into other devices as a 'bonus' in the future, but you'd hope that by that time the current consoles will have much much better GPUs, and games will be taking advantage of that. As for handhelds, people like to talk a lot about the iPhone competing with the PSP, but I don't see how this can happen for one major reason: controls. The same goes for mobile phones. The gaming experience is always going to be better on a PSP, and I don't see people wasting time, effort and precious handset space on dedicated gaming controls in the future either. Consoles are here to stay. Comment made about the PC Authority article: Games consoles 'dead' within a decade? Former Xbox boss says consoles heading for the scrap heap. Lets hope he's thrown on a flame proof suit. What do you think? Join the discussion.
chao Apr 5, 2008 3:32 PM	I don't think comparing iPhone's gaming feature to the dedicated portable gaming device PSP is fair. For the obvious reason, PSP was made to play games. But I think you could potentially compare the game play experience, gaming with iPhone's accelerometer in my opinion is way cooler than using traditional controls.
nix Apr 5, 2008 5:06 PM	chao wrote: I don't think comparing iPhone's gaming feature to the dedicated portable gaming device PSP is fair. For the obvious reason, PSP was made to play games. But I think you could potentially compare the game play experience, gaming with iPhone's accelerometer in my opinion is way cooler than using traditional controls. Obviously the iPhone does much more than games, but it costs a lot more too. And people are comparing it anyway. The accelerometer is cute, but I don't think there would ever be more than a handful of games that could use it, and those would likely be novelty gimmick games. It would end up similar to the Wii -- a great concept in theory, but Nintendo's two biggest releases of the year (Smash Bros and Mario Kart) arguably work just as well without motion controls -- Smash Bros doesn't even give you the option to use them! I think things would be worse on a handheld, too... how are you supposed to tilt that thing around and keep an eye on what's going on on the screen?
chao Apr 5, 2008 6:18 PM	They've ported Quake to the iPhone http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvci1vTXyUo Thoughts?
John Smith Apr 7, 2008 5:03 PM	Looks almost unplayable to me. Mac fanboy wishing his itouch was good for games more like it.
blockcentre Apr 8, 2008 7:44 AM	I don't think games consoles will be dead in a decade. While people are playing games via traditional methods, there will always be game consoles. Lets face it, playing a game on a hand-held device or a phone pales in comparison to playing on a game console with a large screen. I would debate your statement that consoles are cutting edge. They aren't. Consoles are simply last year's PC game technology. Always has been, always will. The main reason for this is cost. For a console to be really successful, the price needs to be kept down. How many PS3's did Sony sell when they were priced near $1000? This will become important for the next generation of consoles. With prices of PC technology falling where the high-end is getting cheaper and cheaper and consoles becoming more feature rich, it won't be long before the differences in price between a good gaming PC and a console are marginal.
nix Apr 8, 2008 10:02 AM	blockcentre wrote: I would debate your statement that consoles are cutting edge. They aren't. Consoles are simply last year's PC game technology. Always has been, always will. The main reason for this is cost. For a console to be really successful, the price needs to be kept down. How many PS3's did Sony sell when they were priced near $1000? You're right, PCs will always be more powerful -- but they're cutting edge compared to the average DVD player or recorder. chao wrote: They've ported Quake to the iPhone http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvci1vTXyUo Thoughts? A perfect example of why gaming on the iPhone is a gimmick and a waste of time. :)
charonis Apr 8, 2008 12:18 PM	Well I have Quake on my Nokia N95... so I'm not that impressed. I also have a C64 emulator on my N95, so no game on the iPhone will ever compare to that! (well not for now anyway...)
blockcentre Apr 8, 2008 9:22 PM	charonis wrote: Well I have Quake on my Nokia N95... so I'm not that impressed. I also have a C64 emulator on my N95, so no game on the iPhone will ever compare to that! (well not for now anyway...) Yeah, that might be great while on the train home, but would you trade that for your gaming PC with a decent LCD? They're a nice gimmick and can help pass the time, but that's all.
charonis Apr 9, 2008 9:22 AM	Of course I wouldn't. I don't even play it on the train, haha. I have my PSP for that :) Mobile phone games should be simple and fun points-based games, like the classic Snake, Tetris, Columns, etc, or even turn-based RPGs would even be good, not games like FIFA08, which is nigh impossible to control.