US will be pushed into second place, claims US study.
China is on track to surpass all other nations in manufacturing technology, including current leader, the US, according to a US academic study.
While China still lags behind more developed nations in several key areas, the writing is on the wall for the rest of the world, say the study's authors.
“It’s like being 40 years old and playing basketball against a competitor who’s only 12 years old – but is already at your height,” said Nils Newman, a co-author of the US National Science Foundation-supported research.
“You are a little better right now and have more experience, but you’re not going to squeeze much more performance out. The future clearly doesn’t look good for the United States.”
The research was conducted for the NSF by the Georgia Institute of Technology. The researchers tracked a number of key indicators in a broad range of fields including scientific and engineering training, research, and manufacturing.
“China has really changed the world economic landscape in technology,” said co-author, Alan Porter. “When you take China’s low-cost manufacturing and focus on technology, then combine them with the increasing emphasis on research and development, the result ultimately won’t leave much room for other countries.”
In the ongoing study, which began in the 1980's, the researchers regularly calculate a 'technological standing' score for leading nations. China's score has risen almost four-fold in 11 years, while the US score has slipped approximately 20 per cent from its peak of 95.4 in 1999. Last year, China scored 82.8, compared to 76.1 for the United States, 66.8 for Germany and 66.0 for Japan.
“We are seeing consistent gains for China across all the criteria we measure,” Newman said.
“As a percentage mover relative to everyone else, we have not seen a stumble for China. The gains have been dramatic, and there is no real sense that any kind of leveling off is occurring.”