Mar 27, 2009 11:57 AM | 3 Comments

Is Apple's move to sell HD movies on the iTunes store the beginning of the end for Blu-ray?

Blockbuster movies such as Quantum of Solace will soon cost US$19.99 to purchase on the US iTunes store, compared to US$14.99 for the standard definition version.

According to Amazon, the Blu-ray version costs US$39.99 (reduced to US$25.99) and the DVD $US29.99 (reduced to US$16.99). It's only a matter of time before HD movies can be bought from the Australia iTunes store (right now you can only rent them).

There's no question that Apple sees Blu-ray as a threat, because it wants people to purchase all their content from the iTunes store. It's why Apple refuses to add TV tuners or an optical drive to the Apple TV.

It's also why Apple refuses to add an FM radio to iPods and iPhones. It's why Apple refuses to ship Macs with Blu-ray drives or even add Blu-ray movie playback functionality to Mac OS.

Apple doesn't make any money when you watch live television, listen to the radio or watch a Blu-ray movie. If it did, you can be sure Jobs would be embracing Blu-ray rather than labelling it "a whole bag of hurt".

Of course, the benevolent dictators at Cupertino have once again decided which technologies are best for Apple users, technologies which just happen to suit Apple's business model. These days, Apple's business model revolves around the iTunes store.

With HD movies for sale on the iTunes store, I'm sure the digerati will be quick to sign Blu-ray's death warrant - but the digital elite are often out of touch with the man on the street. Just because they and their friends are early adopters, they forget that your average person is still coming to terms with the internet and basic online services.

Stand outside the nearest supermarket and ask 100 people if they've got an email address. Have they got broadband at home? If they have, ask them what their monthly allowance is, if they download videos from the internet and if they've got any way of watching such content on their television. You'll find most of them still have a DVD player at their heart of their lounge room and are just coming to terms with the idea of Blu-ray players and high-def Personal Video Recorders.

Mainstream consumers understand physical formats - they stick the content in the player and it just works. DVD was the logical successor to VHS and Blu-ray is the logical successor to DVD. Your average punter will upgrade from DVD to Blu-ray as hardware and movie prices fall - because that's what they'll see in the shops.

You won't see the big electrical retailers such as JB HiFi or Dick Smith pushing iTunes downloads ahead of Blu-ray, because Blu-ray hardware and content is where they'll make their money. Just like Apple, they're recommending technology which protects their own interests.

You'll be able to track the move to Blu-ray by the changing ratio between DVD and Blu-ray discs in your local video store, just as the ratio slowly changed between VHS and DVD.

VHS and DVD each reigned for around a decade, but I don't think Blu-ray will get such as easy run. I'd say it's fair to assume that Blu-ray will be the last of the physical formats and that its successor (perhaps in five years) will be either downloads or streamed content. Until then, the average man on the street will stick with optical discs.

So yes, Apple's move to sell HD movies on the iTunes store is the beginning of the end for Blu-ray - but it will be a long and drawn out death.

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nix Mar 27, 2009 1:23 PM	I'd imagine the quality is fairly terrible. Downloads seem to be between 1.5 and 2GB, which is fine, but not a patch on Blu-Ray. No problem if you have a crap TV I suppose, but I'll stick with real high-def.
Adam Turner Mar 27, 2009 3:54 PM	Yeah, I was going to mention that but I was trying not to go off on too many a tangents. It will be a while before download services can rival the quality of Blu-ray - but I don't that's your average punters main concern (as you say, look at the crap televisions people buy - picture quality is obviously not their highest concern)
Thomas Mar 28, 2009 9:45 PM	Adam Turner is gripped by Silicon Lust - that burning desire to caress all things digital (and that's in his words). A freelance technology journalist with a passion for the cutting edge, Adam is on a quest to attain oneness with technology. Whether he's in the lounge room or the board room, he craves the latest gadgetry the tech world has to offer. Thomas http://www.fastrealestate.com