Xbox, PlayStation, Nintendo: The new console wars
Anyone else get the sense that this generation of consoles is played out? Xbox is in trouble, PlayStation 3 is coming into its own with Killzone 2, and meanwhile there's talk about the future.
Although it has only been a little over three years since the launch of the Xbox 360 kicked off this generation, speculation is already rife about the next generation of products.
Nintendo Wii
The Wii continues to sell very well, in spite of the fact that there hasn’t been much going on in terms of titles for the platform. It has a few games coming that should give it a boost, including new Mario and Zelda titles, as well as other titles designed to take advantage of the new MotionPlus controller, but by and large Nintendo continues to enjoy the success of its early titles.
My guess is that Nintendo will probably be the first out with a new console model in 2011, and in terms of processing hardware it will be about equivalent to the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. It will support HD, of course, and will actually include a lot of similar features to the PS3 and Xbox 360, including local storage for downloadable content.
Nintendo, however, will continue to focus on family-friendly gaming, a strategy that has worked wonders for it in this generation.
Xbox 360
As I’ve mentioned before, the Xbox 360 looks to be in trouble. In terms of its game library I’m not sure there’s much left to be excited about.
Gears of War 2 did very well, having sold well over four million copies, and the multi-platform Fallout 3 also sold very well (and the Xbox version of the latter has downloadable expansions, unlike the PS3 version), but its future library looks a little sparse.
Halo Wars is coming, but having played the demo I’m not convinced it will be a massive success – sure, it’s got the Halo brand going for it, but playing a conventional RTS on a console just doesn’t work well. There’s also Resident Evil 5, but it’s multi-platform.
The Xbox 360 has been given something of a new lease on life in the US at least, thanks to Microsoft’s deal with movie rental company Netflix. Through Xbox Live, US owners can download movies directly to their Xbox 360 – which, quite frankly, is a service that should have been available since the Xbox 360 launched back in 2005.
Instead, Xbox Live has laid fallow, never realising its potential until now. Of course, for those of us not in the US, Xbox Live’s downloadable content is still lame, restricted to pretty much games and game demos.
This infusion, as well as a balance sheet that’s finally in the black, may convince Microsoft to hold off on the next generation of its console – which could be a big mistake.
We haven’t heard much about its plans, except that it’s likely to use an integrated processor incorporating an advanced Xenon design and an ATI GPU. There’s also talk about the inclusion of 3D motion-sensing camera technology that might even obviate the need for a controller.
A 2011 launch is possible, but several industry analysts have predicted that it might not be until 2013 that we see the third generation Xbox.
PlayStation 3
The PlayStation 3 is turning out to be the real late bloomer in this generation. After a very rocky start, thanks to its high prices and anaemic catalogue, it’s the console for which there seems to be the most interesting new stuff coming along.
Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 are set to become massive hits, and are as good as anything on the Xbox 360. But it’s actually in some of the lesser titles that I’ve been most impressed: Flower, Everyday Shooter, Trials of Topoq and other games have innovated on the platform in ways that we haven’t really seen since the launch of the Wii.
Unfortunately for Sony, its original plan for a 10-year lifecycle for the PS3 seems unlikely. The Xbox 360 got the early start and the Wii has all the momentum, leaving the PS3 as an also-ran that’s been costing Sony a good deal of money. There has even been speculation that it might quit consoles altogether, but I think that’s improbable.
More likely is that it will introduce a low-cost version of the PS3 this year or next, and will announce a new console in the same timeframe as Microsoft – perhaps 2012.
The specs of that console are unknown, but recent reports suggest that the GPU will be Intel’s Larrabee, which would be an interesting choice for Sony, and might be enough for Sony to get some of its mojo back.
I think it's unlikely to move away from the Cell processor as the main CPU, however.
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Thoughts on this article? Add a comment below.
Comments: 1
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wanderson75
Feb 21, 2009 4:57 AM
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XB360 looks to be in trouble of what? Enjoying a good comfortable second place position? I mean, enjoying a holdiay sale in the area of 3.3 million consoles worldwide is pretty darn good I think. Especially considering that they don't include earlier gen or handheld sales like some competitors do.
You're sighting three already announced games as the only games coming up this year in the line up as well. That's a little irresponsible considering that Microsoft usually makes the big game accouncements at E3, which the last time I check wasn't until June 4, so unless you have some super secret source that's telling you that they're just not going to show up, I would have to say that your "assumption" is nothing more than personal bias with a touch of "punch up the story to make it something to read".
As far as the next-gen console, I don't think they're going to have to worry about it for some time. There's plenty of good looking new IP in development for the new platform, and if Microsoft wants to stay as a long time contender in the console market, they need to see a console to the end of the generation. Robbie Bach was quoted as saying that XB360 support will continue for one day longer than the Playstation 3. Which he's probably talking up the product, but don't think for a minute that the 360 will be around at least till 2014 with a new console launch either in 2012 or 2013.
I have high hopes for Resistance and Killzone 2, but the fact of the matter is that their biggest killer app, MGS4 just didn't push sales like it's predecessor did. Little Big Planet just broke 1 million sales not too long ago, and people are starting to notice that the third party support for the PS3 is getting to be somewhat lethargic.
I think that you're wrong that they'll move away from the Cell processor. Since third party programmers would then have to code for what would essentially be two different hardware platforms. Unfortunately they're stuck with it. Not that it's a bad processor, but because their current GPU is the bottleneck. And while it would be nice to go with a higher performance GPU, it'll make playing higher performing games that utilize the new GPU harder, if not impossible to support on the earlier gen PS3s. Unless of course you put system requirements on the games. (ie - You must have console batch X or newer to play this game.)
I admire what the Playstation brand has brought us in the last few generations, but there was clearly no good judgement on Sony Management's part to implement this console.
Management wanted to get the BluRay out the door. Which would have worked (as it did with previous generations), except for the fact that BluRay was brand spanking new, and therefore the cost of the technology was too high.
Also, the Cell processor is extremely hard to code for for many developers (I say many, because I ackowledge the fact that some developers have not shared the sentiment). I think better development tools and support would have alleviated this, and prevented many of the loyal third parties (Squenix, Capcom, Midway) from cross platforming. This diluted their library by making it non-exclusive.
Finally, Sony for the most part had the media on its side until it started the press release campaign of basically saying nothing more than, "Everyone sucks, we rule" over and over. The media just got out of two years of mud slinging from a presidential campaign, they don't want to hear it on their console too.
I think that this year is going to be a year of either redemption or complete humiliation for Sony. They need to get the third party support back. And to do that, they need to stop using their first party games as the example of "we're right, you're wrong", and start visiting with these third parties and helping them get back on board.
Nintendo, well, they've got the market nailed. There's no contest for first this generation. Everyone is just waiting to see who crosses t |