Jul 30, 2008 11:32 AM | 3 Comments

The strangest part of this whole National Broadband debate, is how the government has clung onto its minimum 12mbps access speed figure, a number that’s surely outdated by now says Nathan Taylor.

I remember a few years ago reading a report – it was by a British analyst but had apparently been adopted as some kind of Gospel by Telstra – that people were basically happy with 512kbps Internet access, and that there was no need or desire for more. I also remember thinking that it was rather reminiscent of Bill Gates’ infamous “640K ought to be enough for anybody,” statement.

I imagine that three or four years ago, most people were in fact happy with 512kbps. The applications and services that could make use of faster connections just weren’t around. But now they are. And more are coming – just look at the ABC’s recent launch of iView, for example.

NBN and the future
Which brings me to the NBN (national broadband network). The drama over the NBN tender has continued apace in the past months, with each of the major contenders – notably Telstra and Terria – constantly sniping at each other. Telstra keeps saying that it’s the only company capable of making it happen, and that it’s going to cost a lot more than the government thinks.

It also started wholesaling ADSL 2+ services a few weeks ago (which means that other ISPs can offer ADSL 2+ services using Telstra DSLAMs), probably in the hopes of proving that it’s a team player that can be trusted to be our new broadband overlords, and that there’s no need for structural separation of the company. Structural separation, which I said a few weeks ago should be an absolute requirement of the NBN, is what Telstra fears most. [Ed correction: As Simon Hackett of Internode has informed us, Telstra has only talked about wholesaling ADSL 2+, but has not implemented anything yet.]

What about Terria?
Terria, meanwhile, is doing its best to remind us just how evil Telstra is. We haven’t heard much about its plans (and the original July 25 deadline for submissions has come and gone, because Telstra failed to deliver network specs in time), but Terria likes to note that it’s happy with structural separation and that it’s just not as greedy as Telstra.

Why 12MBps isn't good enough
The strangest part of this whole process for me, however, is that the government has clung onto its minimum 12mbps access speed figure, a number that’s surely outdated by now. It sounded good two years ago, but times have changed.

To put it in context, currently broadcast high-definition TV channels use in the region of 16mbps of bandwidth. You couldn’t watch one of those over a 12mbps connection. Admittedly, broadcast TV uses less efficient compression than many Web standards now, but still 12mbps could best be described as a bare minimum for HD video.

What speeds the rest of the world gets
It’s certainly not enough for multiple HD streams. Meanwhile, in Europe they’re looking at 20-50mbps for all households by 2010-2015, and in Japan and Korea 100mbps connections have already been rolled out. The Australian government is really setting low expectations when it says it wants 12mbps within the next three years.

The big question, then, is whether whoever wins the tender will exceed the government’s criteria, and by how much. I actually expect that they will (especially in metropolitan areas), but with the government’s current criteria there’s no guarantee of that. And if they don’t exceed the criteria, Australia will again be left behind the rest of the world, and the NBN rollout will have been for nothing.

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kevin_watters Jul 30, 2008 4:57 PM	Japan: Length = 2,000 KM Population = 127 Million Australia: Length = 6,500 KM (most heavy populated coastal region) Population = 20 Million Its a LOT cheaper to implement 100Mbps broadband in Japan and Europe (they are small countries !) than here ! They also have the under-sea fibre cable to carry and support the data and bandwidth. Telstra would not have to want to build the infrastructure then sell it off at rock bottom prices to competitors who will only under-cut their prices by less than half ! They have to answer to their shareholders first.. it IS a business... Japan and Europe's governments are more closely linked to their internet infrastructure than ours and are the ones fronting the bills for the implementation of high speed fibre. Next issue: to stream full-HD video you need 54Mbps of zero-latency bandwidth... that FAR exceeds ANY planned infrastructure here... so forget streaming HD video... that leaves only peer-to-peer applications that MOSTLY are only used to share pirate material anyway... so no need for anything faster than 12Mbps. Look... the cable/fbre is going in... down the road if the NEED arrises they can push more data through the cable...or put in more cable... but giving MORE people broadband connection at a lower price is MORE important than being able to shove Blueray pics through your broadband is it not ?
bbjai Jul 30, 2008 8:02 PM	No matter what you say the demand for peer to peer will drive the need for speed. People are downloading things at a ridiculous rate. And this will only progress as it goes along. So yes to a high speed network.
mordie Jul 31, 2008 8:53 AM	All good and well talking about FTTN and the NBN but what they don't know is that there are a HUGE Number of customers out there that's can not even get broadband. I know I've been there (11 and a bit months of hell!) The current infrastructure is nowhere near future proofing standards. Take for example the fact that MOST new estates across Australia are behind CMUX/RIM par gain based systems that have limited ADSL port availability - A huge number are have NO ports available and there are area's where only less 20% of people connected to these unit well ever be able to get ADSL. Furthermore the unlucky ones that can't get ADSL are having their speed capped at around the 31.2K mark even if they use a 56K modem.,.. and you can't obtain ADSL2+ if your behind on of these CMUX/RIM units. Seriously, The issue is big and fixing the problem that's been created is going to be a massive task. I spent 11 months lobbying Telstra, Telstra Country Wide, state and Federal levels of government and local shire to get out of port hell .. I was one of the lucky people to get out ... The current problem needs to be fixed before they should award the NBN to anyone. If you move house or build one have fun trying to get broadband in some areas (especially new estates) ... The storys I can tell you would make your blood boil ... eg the 180 quarantine period for just disconnected ADSL ports ... The rule is basically this: If a person at house 3 high st has their ADSL disconnected the port is still active on that line even though they disconnect the ADSL service for 180 days -6 months. This means that anyone in at 3 high st be it renter or new owner can reconnect an ADSL service during in that time but anyone else waiting for a port on a full CMUX/RIM it still shows that there are no ports. There is no way of knowing if there are ports in this quarantine period.