Blu-ray won, so what are we waiting for?
The high-def format war would seem to be over, so why aren't we rushing to embrace Blu-ray?
Blu-ray sales actually plummeted 40 percent from January to February, according to figures from the NPD group. This could be dismissed as a statistical blip, were it not for the fact they only rose a mere 2 per cent from February to March. HD DVD may be dead and buried, but consumers apparently aren't ready to plunge into Blu-ray just yet. Why?
It's not that people don't own big televisions to watch Blu-ray on. LCD televisions and, to a lesser extent plasmas, are running out the door down at the local electrical bulk discount store. Admittedly a lot of these televisions are junk, as suburbanites are blinded by screen size with little appreciation for picture quality.
The best plasmas look better than the best LCDs, I don't care what anyone says, but plasma seems destined to go the way of HD DVD thanks to yet another smear campaign from Sony. Sony's trash-talking during the Blu-ray v HD DVD war was enough to make Muhammad Ali blush and, since Sony abandoned the plasma market, plasma televisions have copped the same treatment. Sony make some of the best LCDs around, but Pioneer's plasmas still put them to shame.
Price is obviously a factor. The early adopters are already on-board with Blu-ray (or HD DVD) and even the second wave of discerning buyers jumped on board late last year when Blu-ray's victory looked certain. With those two market segments already taken care of, it's now coming down to main stream consumers. For many of them I'd say $AU300 is the magic point at which AV devices become "cash and carry" rather than a well-considered purchase. That's still a year or two away for Blu-ray players.
After price, it comes down to the fact your average shopper wouldn't know a quality television if it bit them on the arse. Of course that's partly because of the terrible job some retailers do of setting up displays, along with the mis-information that spews forth from some sales assistants. It's also because your average punter has never sat 50 inch Pioneer Kuro plasmas and Sony Bravia LCDs next to each other in their lounge room and compared all the formats until their family begged for mercy.
Consumer ignorance, or perhaps just complacency with existing formats, is why the general public rarely embraces new technologies as fast as the digerati would expect. The DVD player was ten years-old before it outnumbered the humble VCR in lounge rooms, according to Nielsen Media Research. It took a decade even though the advantages of DVD players were obvious even to the non-tech savvy, you didn't need a new television and there wasn't a format war to confuse the issue. I'd say the confusion over Blu-ray and HD DVD, DVD and HDD recorders, PVRs, digital television and the various definitions of high definition means punters are happy to sit on their VCRs for a little longer - until the upgrade decision becomes truly idiot proof.
Those who believe Video on Demand and other technologies have already made Blu-ray irrelevant are delusional. Consumer behaviour suggests it will be a long time before Blu-ray or even ordinary DVDs are dead and buried. Of course when I say a long time I mean at least five years, which is an eternity in technology. Realistically I'd say it's closer to ten years. I think it's fair to say that Blu-ray will probably be the last physical video format, but I think it's crazy to say it will shuffle off this mortal coil any time soon.
As for the uninformed masses, they don't seem to appreciate that your television needs to be at least 37 inches, and 1080p, to see the difference between Blu-ray and an upscaled DVD. As such, it's no surprise that upscaling DVD players seem to be the hot ticket item at the moment. They don't actually convert DVDs into true 1080p, they just take an educated guess as to where the extra pixels should go to make the DVD look a bit sharper. Most Blu-ray and HD DVD players also upscale DVDs, which is why some people are using the demise of HD DVD to pick up a cheap upscaling DVD player that just happens to play HD DVD as well. If you can pick up some of your favourite movies cheap on HD DVD, maybe this would be enough to tide you over until Blu-ray prices drop.
HD DVD's blood is still fresh on the streets, Blu-ray prices remain high and consumers are still coming to terms with the new technology. Sony and its allies can crow about Blu-ray's victory as much as they want, but shoppers aren't prepared to come out of hiding just yet.
What do you think? Has the time come to take the plunge into Blu-ray?
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Thoughts on this article? Add a comment below.
Comments: 2
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steve_666
May 8, 2008 1:02 PM
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Its simply to expensive to get a bluray player, they are maybe around $699. Now sony has the monopoly on bluray i dont see the price dropping any time soon unless other brands get on board but saying that sony still owns bluray. You now can get dvd players that upscale and with people having a big collection of dvds why get bluray. |
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Adam Turner
May 12, 2008 4:11 PM
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I agree. Don't rush into Blu-ray if you don't have to. |